Breaking: the St. Louis Cardinals Five Plan..

Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report did not rank the Cardinals among the top-15 teams for the ensuing five years.

Well-run companies have outlooks and backup plans for the short, medium, and long terms. Organizations in baseball shouldn’t be any different.

A strong organization will continue to field a competitive MLB team and have an abundance of talented prospects in the pipeline. Furthermore, the franchise’s management will be prepared to spend money on both current players and free agents.

Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report recently completed an exercise in which he evaluated the 10 franchises that have the best chance of succeeding over the next five years. He took into account the teams’ chances of winning the World Series this year, players who are under team control through at least 2028, the best prospects in each organization’s system, and the front office’s financial capacity by examining payrolls from previous years.

Miller’s list didn’t even include the St. Louis Cardinals among the honorable mentions. The Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates were voted 10th and 9th, respectively, while division rivals Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs were awarded honorable mentions.

In what areas are the Cardinals lacking?
In almost every area, that is. In the last four seasons, the Cardinals have outspent only five of the top ten teams on Miller’s list. Moreover, whichever projection method you select, the Cardinals are not favored to win the World Series over any of the teams on the list.

The Cardinals have very few regular players under contract through 2028 and beyond when it comes to controllable assets. Some important players like Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, Sonny Gray, Nolan Arenado, and Willson Contreras will be free agents in the upcoming years, but Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson, Jordan Walker, Matthew Liberatore, Ivan Herrera, Masyn Winn, Michael Siani, and Victor Scott II will all be on the roster then, according to Cot’s.

Prospect rankings also don’t favor the Cardinals. Joel Reuter of Bleacher Report updated his prospect rankings in mid-May. Cooper Hjerpe, Thomas Saggese, and Tekoah Roby were the players he listed as being outside the cut. Tink Hence came in at number 38 and Victor Scott II at number 98. An company cannot be successful in the long run if it has only two prospects ranked in the top 100.

Is this evaluation of the company accurate?
It probably is, but the Cardinals are a little different. Baseball payrolls in the $10–15 area have long been a source of satisfaction for the DeWitt family, who are even willing to consider dipping into the top 10 (see 2021). Players like Quinn Mathews, Chen-Wei Lin, and Chase Davis are a little bit underrated nationally, but the Cardinals’ prospects are generally priced appropriately.

The young players the squad now has on the roster—Masyn Winn, Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson, Ivan Herrera, Jordan Walker, and Matthew Liberatore—are excellent foundation pieces. Masyn Winn and Nolan Gorman are both in the top 87 in fWAR among players in the National League alone (albeit Winn’s errors hurt his overall placement on FanGraphs). Since Willson Contreras was sidelined, Alec Burleson is emerging as a star catcher, and Ivan Herrera has been a top offensive catcher. It’s going well for Libby as a leverage reliever.

This year’s World Series hopes are a bit of a pipe dream for the club. Many middle-of-the-pack teams will have an opportunity to advance to the sixth Wild Card berth, but the Cardinals must make some upgrades if they want to be taken seriously in the postseason. But the chance is clear—the last two National League representatives were both Wild Card teams.

As of right moment, the Cardinals’ five-year plan is a little lackluster. Nonetheless, the Cardinals are renowned for their consistency, and a strong draft pick this year along with some significant additions through trades and free agency will turn the franchise around. The Birds on the Bat are always reliable.